B.C. seeks 4th straight win vs. Edmonton Sunday

[douglas]

EDMONTON ESKIMOS (12-7)

at BRITISH COLUMBIA LIONS (11-7)

CFL Playoffs - West Division Final
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:35 p.m. EDT
Line: British Columbia -6, Total: 49.5

British Columbia can punch its ticket to the Grey Cup with a fourth straight win over Edmonton when the Lions host the Eskimos in the West Division final Sunday.

Edmonton’s odds were long going into this game, but they got longer when star RB Jerome Messam was pronounced out for the year with a knee injury. Messam had been a non-factor in one of the teams’ four meetings. In an August matchup, he had one carry for -1 yard and one catch for 10 yards in the then-injury-plagued Eskimos’ 36-1 blowout loss. The Lions handled the Eskimos in both meetings at home, winning by nine each time, and they finished the regular season by winning eight of nine SU (7-2 ATS) and going 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home during that span. BRITISH COLUMBIA is the pick to win and cover.

strong trend supporting the Lions:

BRITISH COLUMBIA is 8-1 ATS (88.9%, +6.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive unders this season. The average score was BRITISH COLUMBIA 32.1, OPPONENT 13.6 - (Rating = 2*).

Against Calgary in last week’s 33-19 victory, the Eskimos took advantage of a sloppy Stampeders offense, as QB Drew Tate turned it over twice in the first half. But B.C. quarterback Travis Lulay is one of the CFL’s least turnover-prone QBs. He threw just 11 interceptions on 583 attempts, the second-lowest INT percentage among quarterbacks with at least 250 attempts, and he lost just one fumble.

Lulay was outstanding against Edmonton during the regular season, completing 64.2% of his passes for 953 yards, 10 TD and only three picks in B.C.’s three wins over the Eskimos. And the Lions pass rush was positively dominant in those wins, recording 14 sacks. DE Keron Williams, who was fourth in the CFL with 11 sacks during the regular season, had four of them in those three games. Last week, Calgary got to Edmonton QB Ricky Ray for four sacks.

Ray was in more of a caretaker role last week against Calgary, as the Stamps’ turnovers led to points for Edmonton. Ray was 19-for-27 for 245 yards, 1 TD and no interceptions. Linebacker Damaso Munoz was one of the stars of that game, in large part due to his 77-yard fumble return touchdown.

With Messam out, RB Hugh Charles (8 carries, 35 yards in the regular season) and FB Calvin McCarty (52 carries, 209 yards) are set for bigger roles in what should be a pass-happy Edmonton game plan.

B.C. slotback Arlan Bruce gave the Eskimos fits this year, catching nine passes for 129 yards and 2 TD in that August blowout, and grabbing six passes for 70 yards and a score in their October meeting. He was the cause of a minor distraction for the Lions this week when he was briefly detained after an altercation over a parking ticket in Vancouver.



This was copied and pasted information I thought I would pass along ........
This League was not kind to me in the early going ( if lucky 3 below 500 )
Hope all is well with this group .........
Will try aging this week ..........

 

[douglas]

CFL Playoffs - East Division Final
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Winnipeg -3.5, Total: 51

With defending champion Montreal out of the picture, it will be Winnipeg hosting Hamilton on Sunday with a spot in the Grey Cup on the line.

Hamilton grabbed some momentum with a thrilling division semifinal win over Montreal last week, but that Alouettes team was ravaged by injuries. The TiCats were outclassed by the Blue Bombers in their regular season meetings. Winnipeg won all three games (2-1 ATS), including most recently a 33-17 victory at Hamilton six weeks ago. Bombers QB Buck Pierce is reportedly recovered from a knee injury and ready to go, and Winnipeg’s top-notch defense should be able to hold Hamilton in check on its home turf. WINNIPEG is the pick.

trend backing the Bombers:

Play Against - Road teams (HAMILTON) - average passing team (7.5-8.3 PY/Att.) against an excellent passing defense (<=6.9 PY/Att.). (24-4 since 1996.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 3*).

The TiCats, somewhat predictably, picked apart Montreal’s makeshift secondary in their 52-44, overtime division semifinal win. Bakari Grant (7 catches, 130 yards, TD), and Avon Cobourne (97 rushing yards, 48 receiving yards, TD) had monster days, and slot back Marcus Thigpen got things started with a 56-yard touchdown run.

But things won’t be as easy against a Blue Bombers defense that was the best in the East during the regular season. DE Odell Willis, who tied for the CFL lead with 13 sacks, had one in each of his three matchups against the TiCats. The Winnipeg secondary intercepted Hamilton quarterbacks six times in their regular season matchups, and TiCats QB Kevin Glenn had two of his season’s worst performances against the Bombers: 13-of-20, 109 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT in October; 18-of-31, 187 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT in July.

Just as worrisome, Hamilton was unable to get much pressure last week against Montreal’s patchwork line. DE Justin Hickman, who tied Willis with 13 sacks to lead the regular season, was invisible in the game. Als QB Anthony Calvillo dissected the TiCats defense for 513 yards and three scores.

Hamilton also must figure out Winnipeg RB Chris Garrett. The former third-stringer has surprised since moving into the starting lineup, rushing for 576 yards and a 6.3 yard-per-carry average. That included a 131-yard game in the October win over the TiCats. Pierce was a steady game manager in the three matchups with Hamilton, completing 55.3% of his passes for 683 yards, 4 TD and 1 INT.

 

[thirdperson]

In 3 previous seasons, home teams are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in division finals. Both BC and Winnipeg have a habit of beating divisional foes. Unless foes change out of the ordinary, BC and Winnipeg should win. I don't buy the theory that beating same foe 4 times consecutively is impossible.